Estimating the uncertainty of large-scale atmospheric dynamics1>
Co-Author: Ari Solomon
Co-Author: Lorenzo Polvani
We plan to investigate the uncertainty in simulated trends of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (and all associated climate variables), that arise from the internal variability of the coupled Earth system model. More specifically, we are interested in uncertainties, both in the past and in the future, relating to the simulated poleward shifts of the midlatitude storm tracks, the expansion of the tropical circulation, changes in the latitude and width of dry zones, the height of the tropopause, and other metrics that relate to the large scale circulation of the atmosphere.