Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive
As part of its activities, the US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles has produced a centralized data archive of initial-condition Large Ensembles conducted with currently up to 7 CMIP5-class climate models. This archive contains gridded fields of key variables at both daily and monthly resolution, and is publicly accessible via the NCAR Climate Data Gateway or via NCAR’s supercomputer for users with a Cheyenne account: /glade/collections/cdg/data/CLIVAR_LE (note that the complete MPI-ESM Large Enesmble is available here)
The table below provides a summary of the salient characteristics of the models and simulations contained within the archive. Further discussion of the utility and applications of the archive is given in the reference below. Please direct questions about this archive to Dr. Flavio Lehner [ flehner@ucar.edu ] or Dr. Clara Deser [ cdeser@ucar.edu ].
We kindly ask that you acknowledge the US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles and reference Deser et al. (2020) when presenting results based on the Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive in either oral or written form.
Deser, C., F. Lehner, K. B. Rodgers, T. Ault, T. L. Delworth, P. N. DiNezio, A. Fiore, C. Frankignoul, J. C. Fyfe, D. E. Horton, J. E. Kay, R. Knutti, N. S. Lovenduski, J. Marotzke, K. A. McKinnon, S. Minobe, J. Randerson, J. A. Screen, I. R. Simpson and M. Ting, 2020: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2. [Article][Read-only]
The archive also includes an “Observational Large Ensemble” (Obs-LE) for temperature (land only), precipitation (land only), and sea level pressure (global), which can be used to sample alternative but non-observed historical climate trajectories. These data are based on a statistical model and described in McKinnon and Deser (2018). Further details and the code to reproduce the Obs-LE can be found on github. Please direct questions about the Obs-LE to Prof. Karen McKinnon [ kmckinnon@ucla.edu ].
| Modeling Center | Model Version | Model Resolution (atm/ocn) | Years | Initialization Method | Number of Members | Forcing | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCCma | CanESM2 | ~2.8°x2.8°/~1.4°x0.9° | 1950-2100 | Macro and Micro | 50 | historical, rcp85 | Kirchmeier-Young et al. (2017) |
| CSIRO | MK3.6 | ~1.9°x1.9°/~1.9°x1.0° | 1850-2100 | Macro | 30 | historical, rcp85 | Jeffrey et al. (2013) |
| GFDL | ESM2M | ~2.0°x2.5°/~1.0°x0.9° | 1950-2100 | Macro | 30 | historical, rcp85 | Rodgers et al. (2015) |
| GFDL | CM3 | ~2.0°x2.5°/~1.0°x0.9° | 1920-2100 | Micro | 20 | historical, rcp85 | Sun et al. (2018) |
| MPI | MPI-ESM-LR | ~1.9°x1.9°/nominal 1.5° | 1850-2100 | Macro | 100 | historical, rcp26, rcp45, rcp85 | Maher et al. (2019) |
| NCAR | CESM1-CAM5 | ~1.3°x0.9°/nominal 1.0° | 1920-2100 | Micro | 40 | historical, rcp85 | Kay et al. (2015) |
| NCAR | CESM1-CAM5 | ~1.3°x0.9°/nominal 1.0° | 1920-2080 | Micro | 15 | historical, rcp45 | Sanderson et al. (2015) |
| EC-Earth Consortium | EC-EARTH | ~1.1°x1.1°/nominal 1.0° | 1860-2100 | Micro | 16 | historical, rcp85 | Hazeleger et al. (2010) |
| Obs-LE v1.0 | 1°x1° | 1921-2014 | 1000 | McKinnon and Deser (2018) |
Additional LE resources for historical and scenario simulations exist within CMIP6. These are listed below and are available from the standard CMIP server at ESGF. We focus on models that have at least 15 members in the historical period. This table is current as of November 2020. More simulations are expected to be added to CMIP6.
| Modeling Center | Model Version | Model Resolution (atm/ocn) | Years | Initialization Method | Forcing (Number of Members) | Reference (*ESGF reference) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCCma | CanESM5 | ~2.8°x2.8°/~1.4°x0.9° | 1850-2100 | Macro | historical (50), ssp126 (50), ssp245 (50), ssp370 (50), ssp585 (50) Note that the first 25 members have a different physics version (r[1..25]i1p1f1), leading to a different climate from the second 25 members (r[26..50]i1p2f1) | Swart et al. (2019) |
| CNRM | CNRM-CM6-1 | ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° | 1850-2100 | Macro | historical (30), ssp126 (6), ssp245 (10), ssp370 (6), ssp585 (6) | *Voldoire (2018) |
| EC-Earth Consortium | EC-Earth3 | ~0.7°x0.7°/nominal 1° | 1850-2100 | Macro | historical (23), ssp126 (7), ssp245 (5), ssp370 (7), ssp585 (7) | *EC-Earth Consortium (2019) |
| SMHI | EC-Earth3 | ~0.7°x0.7°/nominal 1° | 1970-2100 | Macro | historical (50), ssp119 (50), ssp126 (50), ssp245 (50), ssp370 (50), ssp434 (50), ssp534-over (50), ssp460 (50), ssp585 (50) | Wyser et al. (2021) |
| NASA | GISS-E2-1-G | ~2°x2.5°/~1°x1.25° | 1850-2100 | Macro | historical (40, comprised of 10 members with different physics and forcing combinations), ssp126 (2), ssp245 (15), ssp370 (2), ssp585 (2) | *NASA GISS (2019) |
| NASA | GISS-E2-1-H | ~2°x2.5°/~1°x1.25° | 1850-2014 | Macro | historical (23) | *NASA GISS (2019) |
| IPSL | IPSL-CM6A-LR | ~2.5°x1.25°/~1.0°x0.5° | 1850-2100 | Macro | historical (32), ssp119 (6), ssp126 (6), ssp245 (11), ssp370 (11), ssp585 (6) | Boucher et al. (in review) |
| NCC | NorCPM1 | ~1.25°x1.9°/nominal 1° | 1850-2029 | Macro | historical (30) | *Bethke et al. (2019) |
| Met Office | UKESM1-0-LL | ~1.25°x1.9°/nominal 1° | 1850-2029 | Macro | historical (17), ssp126 (5), ssp245 (5), ssp370 (5), ssp585 (5) | *Tang et al. (2019) |
| MIROC | MIROC6 | ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° | 1850-2014 | Macro | historical (50), ssp126 (50), ssp245 (50), ssp370 (3), ssp585 (50) | Tatebe et al. (2019) |
Finally, modeling groups have started to produce multi-member ensembles for single-forcing simulations. Some follow the CMIP DAMIP protocol (with experiments such as 'hist-nat', 'hist-GHG', etc). Others use independent experimental setups, such as "everything-but-X" forcing, or idealized aerosol forcing scaling.
| Modeling Center | Model Version | Model Resolution (atm/ocn) | Years | Initialization Method | Forcing (Number of Members) | Reference (*ESGF reference) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCCma | CanESM5 | ~2.8°x2.8°/~1.4°x0.9° | 1850-2014 | Macro | hist-nat (50), hist-GHG (50), hist-aer (30), hist-sol (50), hist-volc (50) | ?? |
| CNRM | CNRM-CM6-1 | ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° | 1850-2014 | Macro | hist-nat (10) | *Voldoire (2018) |
| NASA | GISS-E2-1-G | ~2°x2.5°/~1°x1.25° | 1850-2014 | Macro | hist-nat (20) | *NASA GISS (2019) |
| IPSL | IPSL-CM6A-LR | ~2.5°x1.25°/~1.0°x0.5° | 1850-2014 | Macro | hist-nat (10) | Boucher et al. (in review) |
| MIROC | MIROC6 | ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° | 1850-2014 | Macro | hist-nat (50) | Tatebe et al. (2019) |
| NCAR | CESM1-CAM5 | ~1.3°x0.9°/nominal 1.0° | 1920-2080 | Micro | everything-but-GHG (20), everything-but-anthropogenic-aer (20), everything-but-biomass-burning (15; only until 2029), everything-but-LULUC (5; only until 2029) | Deser et al. (2020, J. Climate) |
| NCAS | HadGEM3-GC3.1 | ~1.25°x1.9°/nominal 1.0° | 1850-2014 | Macro | Aerosol scaling: 0.2× (5), 0.4× (5), 0.7× (5), 1.0× (5), 1.5× (5) | Dittus et al. (2020, Geophys. Res. Lett.) |